Smart Population Growth

There are a wide variety of theories on how population growth will affect our future. Most population growth arguments are polar opposites, believing growth will save the world through its advances in technology or it will destroy the world through ecosystem degradation and resource depletion. Homer-Dixon believes the latter and argues that population growth plays a negative role by causing an increased demand for resources and will lead to environmental scarcity and eventually conflict. However he also recognizes the possibility of population growth causing a boost in productivity, technological advances, and even environmental improvement.

Using the research that has been done on population growth, a plan should be formulated to maximize the benefits and minimize the consequences of population growth. Because growth seems to be inevitable, there should be a plan to make sure it is done in the safest way possible to avoid the potential harms. Creating a concept of smart population growth would help to avoid many of the problems Homer-Dixon fears may occur in the future. Smart population growth could be a term similar to sustainability with a somewhat vague definition with the goal of achieving a promising future for everyone. However smart population growth would also have specific goals tied to the concept, to avoid the problems many predict population growth will cause in the future. By following the goals of smart population growth, growth could provide the benefits of advances in technology while avoiding problems such as resource depletion.

One goal could be a commitment to education throughout the world. Education aids in reducing early pregnancies and encouraging adolescents to work hard towards achieving a promising career path. Encouraging teenagers and especially females to put their career first will aid in avoiding teen pregnancies and will most likely result in them having fewer children as they get older. Additionally, education and access to contraceptives should also be an important element of this step and will help to avoid early pregnancies. This should be especially prevalent in developing countries, to help keep their growth stabilized and not at an exponential rate. By keeping growth at a slow and steady rate, there will be more time to find ways to support higher numbers of people without depleting resources. Exponential growth is much more dangerous as the population increases at a rate that is difficult to keep up with.

Additionally, placing an emphasis on education will ensure that technological advances will be created to help support the growing population. Many people argue that as population continues to grow, advances in technology will allow the world to support more and more people. This has already been the case as the carrying capacity has increased over the past few decades. There is even the possibility of environmental improvements as technology improves. A focus on education will encourage kids to continue their commitment to learning and researching in the future and will hopefully lead to advances in technology to help support the population. Placing an emphasis on education, especially in areas where it may be inadequate, will help to improve the future of many. It could also aid in reducing gaps of income inequality, as education helps provide a more promising future. This helps to address Homer-Dixon’s concern that poorer groups will migrate to vulnerable areas and will cause land degradation to these areas.

Another goal in smart growth could be to work towards creating long lasting material goods. This goal is very tricky to address, but it would be an important step towards avoiding Homer-Dixon’s concerns of population growth causing increased resource consumption. Perhaps one of the leading causes of high resource demand is the fact that many goods are not long lasting. By encouraging manufacturers to create long lasting goods and encouraging customers to purchase long lasting goods, resource demand would go down. Additionally encouraging consumers to get broken appliances repaired instead of replacing with new appliances would help in lowering the resource demand.

Homer-Dixon raises many points about how population growth could affect the future. However, unless very strict population growth prevention policies are implemented, which is extremely unlikely, it is a problem that will have to be dealt with. Population growth does not have to only cause consequences to the world.  By focusing on education and strategies to lower resource demand, the problems of population growth can be avoided and the potential benefits will become more likely. 

Is There Hope for a Solution to the Resource Curse?

Resource rich countries, although prosperous and dripping with income, are strikingly worse off than say a country with little to offer. Many politicians and political scientists debate the idea of the resource curse all the time. The idea that conflict comes from a country being rich in a particular natural resource, such as oil or minerals seems to be such a non-debatable idea, but some have their doubts. The proof is there though and the correlation between conflict/war is undeniable. When a country is so dependent upon one thing to provide all the countries wealth, there is no motivation to strive to diversify means of trade, income or economic prosperity. Countries lack institutions and the means to combat corruption and embezzlement. There are certainly other factors leading to conflict in States, but wealth from resources is an undeniable leader.

                One of the leading factors to the resource curse is the fact that these countries that fall to it have poor institutional arrangements and weak governments. The countries may be prosperous, but do not put forth the efforts to provide proper health and education for all of its citizens. There is a question whether a country with a strong government and successful institutions would still fall to the same problems. Does that much wealth really destroy a country? In this case, I believe that there would need to be strong faith in honesty and reflective properties of all aspects of the resource. Greed and embezzlement seem to start the larger problems involved with the curse. Any country can fall to the problems associated with the curse, but developing countries seem to get hit the hardest with the side effects.

                There is hope though, although some may not agree.  The first step is to make every aspect of monetary value and trade traceable and accountable. If oil companies for example are responsible for reporting how much is sold and purchased between countries and at what cost, there will be less room for embezzlement and off shore funds. If a country is responsible for reporting its wealth, the public will also be aware. I believe, especially in somewhat democratized states, that knowledge of wealth is a strong asset. Citizens can join together and demand more relief, health care assistance and educational institutions be provided.

                Although there are many proposed solutions to the resource curse, it is essential to have government and citizen cooperation and communication. If the two parties can agree and decide how to manage the resources together, then countries are less likely to fall to the evils of the resource curse. Resource abundance should be utilized to encourage better construction of other aspects of a country. Surrounding nations can also do their part to encourage economic diversification from the resource rich countries. They can encourage trade on other things, but also put requirements from the resources they are purchasing. If surrounding nations make their own rules for those countries selling the resources, they will have limited options on how to handle this. If the resource rich countries don’t have anyone to sell too, their wealth will diminish. It is important in any conflict to always incentivize change. It has come to a give and take type of scenario. Countries such as the United States, who are huge consumer of resources, should feel partly to blame for the resource curse occurring in many developing countries. As a wealthy and dependent nation, who also strives to keep peace around the world, we should assist these countries by making it a more accountable and procedural process when trading resources.

                There will always be corruption, embezzlement and poorly manage countries but the fact is, the resource curse can be combated. There are solutions for most every problem and the right combination of support from developed countries, citizen demands and governmental restructuring can stop the problems associated with an abundance of resources. Resources should be assisting in development not halting it.  

How to Improve the Environment: Become a Proactive and a Reactive Society

By: Rebecca Kim

In his The Windup Girl, Paolo Bacigalupi sets the story in the future to warn the current society of what could happen if there were no actions being taken to address environmental problems. More specifically, Bacigalupi surrounds his story in a time where calorie companies dominate food production through “generhacked seeds.”  The presence of calorie companies refers to the grim future that today’s society could experience if Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs) dominate the food market. As a matter of fact, Bacigalupi illustrates in a world where people are genetically modified, implying that the extensive use of GMOs could pave a way for genetically modified humans.

The extensive presence of GMOs also alludes to the argument that utilizing GMOs is merely a reactive way for today’s society to adapt to climate change, instead of proactively working to prevent climate change. Therefore, a reactive approach could lead to a grave disaster (e.g., genetically modified humans used for slavery). In other words, by creating a world where genetically modified organisms and humans exist, Bacigalupi is arguing against a reactive approach. However, in order to improve the environment and combat against climate change, a reactive approach and a proactive approach must be utilized. 

Many environmentalists and scholars define reactive approach as responding to the past rather than anticipating the future while a proactive approach acts before a situation becomes a source of confrontation or crisis. Given the definitions of reactive and proactive approach, they share many similarities with William Easterly’s definitions of searchers and planners in his The White Man’s Burden. To explain, a proactive approach can be seen in the similar light as Easterly’s definition of planners. Both definitions encourage people to think of big ideas (e.g., nation-wide campaigns) that prevent climate change from at least exacerbating. On the other hand, reactive approach and searchers think of locally enforceable and practical ideas in order to respond the current environmental issues.

Easterly argues that enforcing practical solutions in local areas are more an effective approach when trying to solve an international crisis because searchers could observe the effectiveness of such solutions through market feedback mechanisms. Although Easterly makes a valid point that reacting to a crisis by enforcing practical solutions is more efficient, such solutions may not be beneficial in the long run. For example, in The Windup Girl, Bacigalupi argues that resorting to GMOs is beneficial in the short-run as they provide vast quantities of food to developing countries at a lower price. Nevertheless, heavily relying on GMOs results in a widespread of diseases and plagues, a detrimental outcome for the society in the long run. Therefore, the ambitious goals that planners set are needed in order encourage the international community to make proactive decisions and prevent detrimental outcomes from occurring in the long run.

To be more specific, because of the relatively low price and the vast quantities of food that GMOs can provide, GMOs will send positive feedback to searchers, which will signal GMOs as one of the more effective solutions that could combat today’s food shortage in developing countries. However, in order to prevent Bacigalupi’s futuristic scenario from occurring, environmentalists and scientists must realize that GMOs are only temporary solutions; utilizing GMOs is a way to give scientists the time to research to invent technology that can solve issues that arise from food production due to climate change (i.e., drought). While temporarily implementing a reactive solution, planners must plan national campaigns to raise awareness and funds from all over the world for scientists’ research. Scientists’ research on preventing draughts, for example, in many developing countries is a proactive approach that could permanently solve the food shortage issue and inhibit the current society from turning into Bacigalupi’s futuristic society.

Post-Environmental Collapse: What would it look like?

Post-Environmental Collapse: What would it look like?

            In “The Windup Girl” a science fiction novel by description, but possible real life scenario, is when the world has faced environmental destruction beyond repair. The government has become a combination of deceit and confusion, while the general public is faced with starvation and plague. The city lies below sea-level, which has risen due to Global Warming. One of the main themes of the novel was the reliance on government for support as well as the idea of human nature not changing, regardless of how bad times get. It seems as if even though the “feared” environmental collapse took place in the book, there was no saving technology to help alleviate the stresses brought with this type of global issue.

            A similar instance might occur in the event that water becomes scare and unavailable to humans. Technically water is considered a renewable resource, but when faced with over exploitation, pollution, and a consistently growing human population it will soon become unavailable. According to the World Wildlife Fund, “Water covers 70% of our planet, and it is easy to think that it will always be plentiful. However, freshwater—the stuff we drink, bathe in, irrigate our farm fields with—is incredibly rare. Only 3% of the world’s water is fresh water, and two-thirds of that is tucked away in frozen glaciers or otherwise unavailable for our use.” This small amount of freshwater, which humans can use, is soon to become quite limited. Humans cannot survive without water, simply due to the fact that it is essential to vital organs functioning and also proper sanitation. The way that the human race consumes water is unsustainable. Studies show that, “by 2025, two-thirds of the world’s population may face water shortages, and ecosystems around the world will suffer even more” (WWF). Not only will a water scarcity cause stress all on it’s own, agriculture uses “70% of the world’s accessible freshwater” (WWF). This means that not only will people not have water, but then not have food. This type of resource collapse would be detrimental to the human race and ecosystems. I believe this would cause a similar situation to that of “The Windup Girl”.

            In the event that water does become such a scarce resource, I believe that the developed countries would take control of all of the remaining water left. I think a Global Water Organization would need to be created and the resource would need to be divided accordingly. This would then cause countries to disagree, begin wars, cause economic turmoil and lead to disagreement on a global scale. People would be inclined to listen to their governments and trust that they will do things in their favor, however as in the book, the government may not always have the people’s best interest. A water shortage, would be the start of the next World War, simply because this would be such a global issue. Human nature would once again shine through and prove to be a horrible trait in bad times. People would lose sense of what was morally right and wrong. It would be a survival of the fittest type society. I think that eventually the problem would become so severe, that government would lose control over how people reacted. I think technology would come into play as well. I believe corporations would develop a way to create water using chemistry or simply coming up with more efficient ways to desalinize ocean water. These corporations would, as the book portrayed, become the leaders in society. Desperate times would call for desperate measures, and I think people would be willing to do whatever possible to remain alive. These corporations, knowing that people need them would abuse their power and become a hegemon amongst society. I believe as governments became corrupt, they would also be controlled by the corporations. It all dwindles down to who can supply what people need. The government would need to supply things to their own peoples, but would need to do this through the corporations.

            Although the way that “The Windup Girl” demonstrated global distress is a very good possibility. I think in reality, things might actually be much more violent in terms of war. I think governmental disagreement and distress over survival would drive everyone to be violent in some way. This once again points back to the idea that human nature will never change. Human nature, as well as for other organisms, is to survive no matter what.

"Water Scarcity." WorldWildlife.org. World Wildlife Fund, n.d. Web. 03 Apr. 2014

A Future with Freshwater Conflict

            In many developed countries, the majority of populations generally under appreciate freshwater resources. Though water is essential for human life and many processes that impact it, modern water allocation systems and pricing lead individuals to never fully appreciate their reliance on water. Throughout the world, there are concerns on drinking water quality and quantity. In the Middle East, countries with historic conflicts attempt to diplomatically claim various water resources in a part of the world lacking freshwater. In developing nations, locals fear the extraction of water by privatized companies for consumption within their own states or exportation around the world. There has yet to be an armed conflict over water resources. Though many decry the notion of a “war” over water resources alone, worsening international ties between nations and a growing need for freshwater could lead to an unexpected future.

            In 2200, many of the world’s surface freshwater resources have been polluted beyond repair. Technology exists to purify water, but is expensive and not readily available to the public. The rich, regardless of their location, are able to purchase the water they need. These powerful individuals and companies employ large quantities of people, with payment in the form of fresh water or food. Much of the population works for these freshwater holders in order to sustain their survival. Elsewhere, revolutionaries recall a time when these wealthy parties were the ones polluting public waters. Acts of Ecoterrorism are on the rise, and those with money employ private armies to stop attacks on their property.      

            The largest question on everyone’s hand is what to do with the freshwater resources in the North and South. In the past, preventing melting of the ice caps was seen as the most important of jobs for environmentalists. Now, leadership is split as many question if melting these can be controlled to gain fresh water frozen away. “Environmental extremists” seek to melt and collect this water to distribute, even though the impacts could cause irrevocable harm to coastal and island communities.

            In the future, individuals are left to judge for themselves –when there are limited resources before us, what ends will we take to get what we need? Will some be left for worse so that the majority may survive?

Side Effects of Technology Obsession

Technology has helped humans throughout history to solve problems, make discoveries, and adapt to their environments.  However, by fostering a growing obsession with technology, humans can potentially leave problems that do not have technical solutions unaddressed.  This problem stems from too much emphasis on technology as a cure all for our problems and too little focus on how human values contribute to world issues. This potential for distraction was illustrated by Paolo Bacigalupi's The Windup Girl.  The people in the book become so caught up with genetically engineering foods, animals, and people and finding new technology that they fail to solve their problems and create new ones in the process.  Though the case in the book may be exaggerated, it still highlights the potential for technological obsession to solve some problems while concealing social, political, and environmental issues.

The search for technical solutions to our problems can leave many social issues unaddressed.  Some components of these issues cannot be resolved using technology but must be considered in order to solve many of our larger issues.  Because the people in the book were so fixated with using genetically modified animals and humans for inexpensive labor, they failed to fix many of their preexisting social problems.  For example, the people still had social issues including unfair labor laws, poverty, and racial discrimination between the Thai and Yellow Card people. In addition, because of their new engineering technology, there are strong divisions between unmodified humans and the genetically modified New People.  Though we have many of these issues today, the people in the book do not even try to address them and instead focus almost exclusively on technological innovation.  This highlights how over-dependence on technology can lead to obsession and further problems.  An example of this today would be the development of expensive air purification technology that developing countries cannot afford to purchase.  Though the technology could help solve the issue, solely focusing on the development of the technology without consideration for social and economic factors could impede progress on the issue as a whole.

Complete focus on technological innovation can also leave issues related to political  corruption and environmental destruction unadressed.  In the book, because technological development was prioritized, GM companies were highly connected to the political sector.  As a result, there was corruption in all levels of the society.  This would be comparable to today's connection between oil companies and the government.  Government prioritization of energy production promotes technological innovation and development.  However, in Bacigalupi's book, the people do nothing to address the rampant corruption in their government and industries and instead chase their overarching goal of increasing technological innovation. This demonstrates how corruption can go unaddressed when only technological innovation is prioritized as it is in the novel.  Also, the people in The Windup Girl are so focused on producing and storing energy that they left many environmental concerns unaddressed.  They continue to abuse animals in the pursuit of more efficient technology and production. This demonstrates that with all of their development, the people still fostered an anthropocentric view of sentient creatures. In addition, as evidenced by Emiko's overheating, they are still facing several climate issues.  These issues took a backseat as their obsession with technological innovation increased.

It is great to develop technology for human innovation.  However, this should not be done at the expense of other nontechnical issues.  Otherwise, technology only serves as a distraction and cover for other pressing world issues.  Using technology may help us solve some of our problems to a certain extent.  However, viewing technology and a cure for all of our problems will not change human attitudes that impede progress.

The Wrong Turn Technology Can Take

            Windup Girl is a bleak futuristic novel that takes place in the city of Bangkok. There are many horrifying aspects to the society Paolo Bacigalupi paints, and readers can’t help but wonder what can be done to avoid this future. One of the important points in this novel is that although science is neither inherently good nor evil, human greed and stunted foresight can turn scientific and technological advances into bad and unintended results. Genetically modified organisms are raised throughout the book as an example of how various scenarios could play out with dangerous consequences should the technology be utilized by selfish and evil corporations.

            Allowing widespread use of GMO’s is currently a controversial topic as there are many pros and cons, as well as many unknown outcomes.  Research in this field is still its infancy and end results need to be thoroughly researched. Among the benefits of GMO’s is the fact that they can help support the rapidly growing population through the ability to produce large yields, while efficiently using land. Additionally GMO’s are more disease resistant, lowering the need for pesticides and herbicides. Right now, GMO’s seem to be the answer to the questions of how to feed a growing population and curb chemical pollution that runs-off from crops. But the futuristic picture Paolo Bacigalupi sees of a GMO-dominated Bangkok should cause us to keep a wary eye on how GMO’s are used and whether a corporation such as Monsanto should be in control of these decisions.

            Windup Girl shows us some frightening possible scenarios that GMO’s could create in a couple hundred years. One of the most frightening situations implied in the book is the possibility that GMO organizations could create engineered viruses to kill off target crops so that their sterile, engineered crops are the only ones that can stay alive. This allows these companies to maximize their profits by their subsequent monopoly of the food industry. Could a Monsanto-like company have that much power in the future? In the present, companies have already proven to only have their self-interest in mind when they lobby for GMO’s to remain unlabeled in food products.

            Alternatively, should a natural disease develop among crops, the ability to create disease free strains of GMO’s could be lifesaving. Although the science of GMO’s is purely meant as a harmless technological advance to aid in problems such as feeding a growing population, one can envision the potential control a company like Monsanto could have over the world in the future.

            Windup Girl also brings up scenarios that raise moral questions brought about by advances in GMO’s. One character in the book, Emiko, is known as the Windup Girl, for she has been engineered to obey the orders of others. Emiko lives a joyless existence as she is regularly used as a sex slave. Other windups are used to fight in the military. Many moral and ethical questions will need to be addressed if and when GMO’s advance to the stage that they can control human genetics and reproduction.  A society built on the unfair and unethical treatment of a sub-class of windups like Emiko who do the dirty work may well face a doomed future.

            It is frightening that science and technological advances can become evil and dangerous if directed by impersonal and unconscionable corporations. Although these scenarios are seemingly far off, they must be considered now. GMO’s could be a great stride in science, feeding the world and reducing pollution. But that same science could be used to create engineered beings that are forced to have a humiliating existence attending to the demands of an uncaring society. A less morally complex scenario could arise if a corporation, set on controlling market share for its products, used the science of GMO’s to create a disease on target crops and thereby force people to eat food that is the product of genetic modification.

Science in the hands of the thoughtless and ethically deficient could change the planet in many negative ways, biologically as well as morally.